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- ISSN: 2382-6282 (Print); 2972-3108 (Online)
- Abbreviated Title: Int. J. Lang. Lit. Linguist.
- Frequency: Bimonthly
- DOI: 10.18178/IJLLL
- Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Jason Miin-Hwa Lim
- Managing Editor: Jennifer X. Zeng
- Indexed by: CNKI, Google Scholar, Crossref,
- E-mail: ijlll_Editor@126.com
IJLLL 2020 Vol.6(1): 24-30 ISSN: 2382-6282
DOI: 10.18178/IJLLL.2020.6.1.245
DOI: 10.18178/IJLLL.2020.6.1.245
Statistical Model for the Trend of Prevalent Languages Speakers
Yi Xie, Xiaojie Lei, and Peiai Zhang
Abstract—With the advent of increasingly accelerated
globalization, the trend of prevalent languages is changing to
meet the rapid development. This paper aims to analyze the
change of the number of languages speakers considering the
effect of the growth of global population and migration in next
50 years. Firstly, we focus on native language speakers and
second language speakers in local areas to analyze the number
of language speakers in 50 years. We adopt method of social
science to detect the main factors: difficulty of language, area
where languages are promoted by the government,
comprehensive national strength and rates of natural increase.
Specific time series forecasting methods are applied to predict
the number of language speakers as the last two factors vary
through time. Secondly, we introduce migration rate to describe
the effect of migration and population in the countries of
destinations. Then we model the impact of migration in the
second language speakers by selecting the areas that are
influenced by migration and sorting these areas into two kinds,
Exchange Type and Circle Type, which reflects how migration
patterns influence the number of second language speakers in
these areas over the next 50 years.
Index Terms—Clustering algorithm, first and second languages, migration patterns, population of language speakers, time series forecasting methods.
The authors are with the Mathematics Department, Jinan University, No.601, West Huangpu Avenue, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China (e-mail: xie@stu2016.jnu.edu.cn, littlegrace163@163.com, tzhangpa@jnu.edu.cn).
Index Terms—Clustering algorithm, first and second languages, migration patterns, population of language speakers, time series forecasting methods.
The authors are with the Mathematics Department, Jinan University, No.601, West Huangpu Avenue, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China (e-mail: xie@stu2016.jnu.edu.cn, littlegrace163@163.com, tzhangpa@jnu.edu.cn).
Cite: Yi Xie, Xiaojie Lei, and Peiai Zhang, "Statistical Model for the Trend of Prevalent Languages Speakers," International Journal of Languages, Literature and Linguistics vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 24-30, 2020.