IJLLL 2020 Vol.6(1): 24-30 ISSN: 2382-6282
DOI: 10.18178/IJLLL.2020.6.1.245

Statistical Model for the Trend of Prevalent Languages Speakers

Yi Xie, Xiaojie Lei, and Peiai Zhang
Abstract—With the advent of increasingly accelerated globalization, the trend of prevalent languages is changing to meet the rapid development. This paper aims to analyze the change of the number of languages speakers considering the effect of the growth of global population and migration in next 50 years. Firstly, we focus on native language speakers and second language speakers in local areas to analyze the number of language speakers in 50 years. We adopt method of social science to detect the main factors: difficulty of language, area where languages are promoted by the government, comprehensive national strength and rates of natural increase. Specific time series forecasting methods are applied to predict the number of language speakers as the last two factors vary through time. Secondly, we introduce migration rate to describe the effect of migration and population in the countries of destinations. Then we model the impact of migration in the second language speakers by selecting the areas that are influenced by migration and sorting these areas into two kinds, Exchange Type and Circle Type, which reflects how migration patterns influence the number of second language speakers in these areas over the next 50 years.

Index Terms—Clustering algorithm, first and second languages, migration patterns, population of language speakers, time series forecasting methods.

The authors are with the Mathematics Department, Jinan University, No.601, West Huangpu Avenue, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China (e-mail: xie@stu2016.jnu.edu.cn, littlegrace163@163.com, tzhangpa@jnu.edu.cn).

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Cite: Yi Xie, Xiaojie Lei, and Peiai Zhang, "Statistical Model for the Trend of Prevalent Languages Speakers," International Journal of Languages, Literature and Linguistics vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 24-30, 2020.

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